Charity leaders are at their most confident since 2008, with 44 per cent predicting their organisation's situation will improve in the next 12 months, according to a report published today by NCVO.

The quarterly Charity Forecast survey, which has run since 2008, is open to responses from all NCVO members, and asks a number of questions about confidence and predicted spending. The latest version of the poll was conducted last month, and received 565 responses.

The most recent poll found 44 per cent of leaders expect improvements in the economic condition of their own organisations, with 24 per cent expecting matters to get worse and the rest predicting no change. This measure of confidence is 20 per cent positive, compared to 50 per cent negative at the lowest point, in 2011.

Confidence has never returned to the level seen at the first time the poll was taken, in February 2008, when it was 43 per cent positive.

Negative about sector as a whole

In contrast, sector leaders remain negative about conditions in the sector as a whole, although they are growing less pessimistic.

Net confidence now stands at 38 per cent negative, compared to 53 per cent negative when the poll was launched, and 98 per cent negative at the lowest point in 2011.

At no time since the launch of the poll have charity leaders said they expect economic conditions to improve in the sector as a whole.

Squeezed middle

NCVO said the figures also continue to show a “squeezed middle” among small and medium charities, with these organisations less positive than charities as a whole.

It said 15 per cent of small organisations expect that they will decrease expenditure over the next 12 months, despite no small organisation anticipating a decrease in service provision.

Michael Birtwistle, senior policy officer at NCVO, said: “These figures suggest that many smaller organisations are facing the prospect of providing the same or higher levels of service despite having fewer resources.

“As ever, poll results should be analysed with caution, but the longer time-series of polls demonstrates some consistent trends, among them that small and medium-sized charities are experiencing difficulties that can be masked by aggregate figures.

“It's no secret that government funding for charities has fallen significantly, yet demand for services remains at a high level - it isn't surprising that many charities feel pessimistic about the future.”