Income from legacies has “stalled” and could start to fall next year, according to the latest figures published by Legacy Foresight.
For the year to 30 September 2018 legacy income for consortium’s 83 members was up by 3.7 per cent to £1.5bn.
Legacy Foresight said: “After good growth over the course of 2017, consortium legacy income has stalled somewhat recently.”
It warned that rate of increase is falling and that legacy income may “turn negative for the full 2018 calendar year”.
Legacy Foresight said income is being “squeezed from all sides” and said this is because of a “deceleration in the number of deaths” and “a weaker macro-economic climate”.
At the moment it said the number of deaths was “relatively high” at 620,000 in the year to September 2018 but the rate is expected to fall back under 600,000.
Fall in average value of a residual bequest
The average value of a residual bequest has fallen from over £60,000 to £58,600.
Bequest values are driven by the performance of house prices and the stock market.
The average value of cash gifts was £3,900.
Legacy Foresight said that uncertainty around Brexit was the main cause of the weaker economy.
It also warned that if there is a hard Brexit or a no-deal Brexit then “legacy incomes will be far lower – our pessimistic scenario suggests five-year income of just £14.6bn; £1.2bn below our central forecast.”