Long-term investors could be vulnerable to structural weaknesses in the UK economy, an audience of charitable foundations heard from The Times' economics writer Oliver Kamm this morning at the Charity Finance Investment Forum.
There are also "no short-term factors effecting asset allocation", Kamm also said at the event. He said that there is a “lot of slack in the UK economy that can be taken up and that growth can proceed and financial markets will broadly react positively”.
He did say that there are some big potential policy risks, referencing the European debate. He said that commentators and politicians are "under-stating just how disruptive that debate will be" to financial markets and economic prospects.
Kamm also predicted that there will be little change in the shape of UK policy after the next election, he said that he expected that there will be another hung parliament with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats taking up their places again in another Coalition.
He also predicted a 50:50 chance that at some point, in perhaps two elections time, there may be a UK that is outside the European Union and a Scotland that is outside the UK.
He said that one thing that "George Osborne won’t be boasting about", is that his talk of austerity has not been true. He eased off fiscal policy in 2012 and last year “fiscal policy was actually quite expansionary”. Kamm said that the Chancellor didn’t intend that but that is what has happened and that GDP has been a lot stronger than anyone expected.
Kamm also said that there has been a potentially deflationary environment based on changes in the commodity market, which is not a danger to investors, and that the corporate sector is in a good position to invest.