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Studies predicting recession disaster are 'not credible'

Fundraising | Celina Ribeiro | 15 Apr 2009

Studies which predict recession catastrophe for charities are often not credible, according to two leading researchers.

In a paper released today, 7 April, the NCVO’s head of research Karl Wilding (pictured) and Professor John Mohan from Southampton University warn charities to beware of “crying wolf” and reacting to alarmist forecasts.

They say that reports which make dire predictions about the impact of the downturn on charities are often drawn from very small samples and rely on unfounded predictions rather than facts. 

They believe most are produced by organisations which have a vested interest in talking up the crisis so as to attract more funding, and are concerned that policy being made in the current climate is in danger of being misinformed by research and ignorant of historical evidence.

In their History & Policy paper ‘Economic downturns and the voluntary sector: what can we learn from historical evidence?’, Wilding and Mohan claim that “evidence cited in current debate is thin, ahistorical and characterised by a lack of empirical data”.

Professor Mohan said: “Charities should beware of crying wolf. There will be casualties of this recession, but predictions of widespread gloom are likely to prove exaggerated.”

Wilding has called for calm and perspective: “In the midst of so many surveys about the impact of the recession it can be hard to see the wood for the trees... the voluntary sector might be more resilient than some of the more alarmist surveys are suggesting,” he said. 

Positive outcomes 

The researchers conclude that the recession could have a positive impact on charities, based on their analysis into giving trends in North America during the Great Depression of 1929-1931 and to the accounts of Britain’s voluntary hospitals between the two world wars.

They say charities have traditionally diversified their income streams during major downturns, individual giving has remained constant, and while major gifts could decrease they are likely to return when the stock markets regain strength. 

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Directory: National Council of Voluntary Organisations (NCVO)
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